Report

Macroeconomic Scenarios for the Euro-Mediterranean Area: Quantification based on the GEM-E3 model

This study quantifies four alternative macroeconomic scenarios for the southern and eastern Mediterranean countries (SEMCs), with the use of GEM-E3, a general equilibrium model. The four scenarios are: i) the continuation of current policies, ii) southern Mediterranean–EU cooperation, iii) a global opening of the southern Mediterranean countries and cooperation with the rest of the Middle East and other developing countries like China, and iv) a deterioration in the regional political climate and a failure of cooperation.

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MEDPRO Rep No 7 WP8 Paroussos.pdf1.75 MB255514 hours 47 min ago
Date of publication: 
Tue, 23/07/2013
Author(s): 
Leonidas Paroussos, Kostas Fragkiadakis, Ioannis Charalampidis, Stella Tsani and Pantelis Capros
Institutions: E3M Lab at ICCS/NTUA

Quantitative Reference Scenario for the MEDPRO Project

In general equilibrium models the reference scenario is important, as the evaluation of the alternative policies modelled is based on their deviation from the reference scenario. The reference scenario relates to the development of an economic outlook for each region and sector of the model. This means that assumptions are made about the main drivers of growth, e.g. population growth and technical progress. This report provides the main assumptions used for the development of the reference scenario in the MEDPRO project.

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MEDPRO Rep No 6 WP8 Paroussos.pdf1.36 MB19731 day 14 hours ago
Date of publication: 
Thu, 30/05/2013
Author(s): 
Leonidas Paroussos, Kostas Fragkiadakis, Ioannis Charalampidis, Stella Tsani and Pantelis Capros
Institutions: E3M Lab at ICCS/NTUA

Economic and Structural Database for the MEDPRO Project

This report presents the economic and structural database compiled for the MEDPRO project. The database includes governance, infrastructure, finance, environment, energy, agricultural data and development indicators for the 11 southern and eastern Mediterranean countries (SEMCs) studied in the MEDPRO project. The report further details the data and the methods used for the construction of social accounting, bilateral trade, consumption and investment matrices for each of the SEMCs.

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MEDPRO Rep No 5 WP8 Paroussos.pdf2.01 MB21471 day 4 hours ago
MEDPRO Rep No 5 WP8 Macro economic and structural database.xlsx562.07 KB9553 days 18 hours ago
Date of publication: 
Wed, 29/05/2013
Author(s): 
Leonidas Paroussos, Stella Tsani and Zoi Vrontisi
Institutions: E3M Lab at ICCS/NTUA

Scenarios for the Agricultural Sector in the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean

The paper builds predictive scenarios for the agricultural sector of eleven southern and eastern Mediterranean countries (SEMCs), namely Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Palestine, Syria, Tunisia and Turkey. First, it assesses the performance trends of the SEMCs’ agricultural sector, with a focus on production, consumption and trade patterns, incentives, trade protection policies and trade relations with the EU, productivity dynamics and their determinants.

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MEDPRO Rep No 4 WP5 Belghazi.pdf533.01 KB120316 hours 24 min ago
Date of publication: 
Tue, 05/03/2013
Author(s): 
Saad Belghazi
Institutions: IMRI

What prospects for transport infrastructure and impacts on growth in southern and eastern Mediterranean countries?

Lack of adequate infrastructure is a significant inhibitor to increased trade of the countries of the Mediterranean region. Bringing their transport infrastructure to standards comparable with countries of a similar per capita GDP will be costly but worthwhile.

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MEDPRO Rep No 3 WP5 Carruthers.pdf2.68 MB10862 hours 46 min ago
Date of publication: 
Thu, 21/02/2013
Author(s): 
Robin Carruthers
Institutions: CASE

Population Scenarios for South Mediterranean Countries: 2010-2050

This MEDPRO project report describes four population growth scenarios for 11 countries in the Mediterranean region, using the MEDPRO economic-political development framework to consider how indicators of fertility, mortality, and international migration might change if people in these countries were to live in different macro-economic and political contexts. The paper also reflects on the results obtained in light of recent political developments in the region.

Date of publication: 
Wed, 15/08/2012
Author(s): 
George Groenewold, Joop de Beer, Corina Huisman
Institutions: NIDI

Tourism in the Mediterranean: Scenarios up to 2030

From 1990 to 2010, the 11 countries of the south-eastern Mediterranean region (Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Occupied Palestinian Territory, Syria, Tunisia and Turkey, hereafter SMCs) recorded the highest growth rates in inbound world tourism. In the same period, domestic tourism in these countries also increased rapidly, which is astonishing given the security risks, natural disasters, oil prices rises and economic uncertainties in the region.

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MEDPRO TR No 1 WP5 Lanquar Update.pdf522.35 KB19504 days 13 hours ago
Date of publication: 
Tue, 26/07/2011
Author(s): 
Robert Lanquar
Institutions: CASE