Scenario building and impact assessment

Macroeconomic Scenarios for the Euro-Mediterranean Area: Quantification based on the GEM-E3 model

This study quantifies four alternative macroeconomic scenarios for the southern and eastern Mediterranean countries (SEMCs), with the use of GEM-E3, a general equilibrium model. The four scenarios are: i) the continuation of current policies, ii) southern Mediterranean–EU cooperation, iii) a global opening of the southern Mediterranean countries and cooperation with the rest of the Middle East and other developing countries like China, and iv) a deterioration in the regional political climate and a failure of cooperation.

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MEDPRO Rep No 7 WP8 Paroussos.pdf1.75 MB27022 hours 42 min ago
Date of publication: 
Tue, 23/07/2013
Author(s): 
Leonidas Paroussos, Kostas Fragkiadakis, Ioannis Charalampidis, Stella Tsani and Pantelis Capros
Institutions: E3M Lab at ICCS/NTUA

Quantitative Reference Scenario for the MEDPRO Project

In general equilibrium models the reference scenario is important, as the evaluation of the alternative policies modelled is based on their deviation from the reference scenario. The reference scenario relates to the development of an economic outlook for each region and sector of the model. This means that assumptions are made about the main drivers of growth, e.g. population growth and technical progress. This report provides the main assumptions used for the development of the reference scenario in the MEDPRO project.

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MEDPRO Rep No 6 WP8 Paroussos.pdf1.36 MB20682 hours 47 min ago
Date of publication: 
Thu, 30/05/2013
Author(s): 
Leonidas Paroussos, Kostas Fragkiadakis, Ioannis Charalampidis, Stella Tsani and Pantelis Capros
Institutions: E3M Lab at ICCS/NTUA

Economic and Structural Database for the MEDPRO Project

This report presents the economic and structural database compiled for the MEDPRO project. The database includes governance, infrastructure, finance, environment, energy, agricultural data and development indicators for the 11 southern and eastern Mediterranean countries (SEMCs) studied in the MEDPRO project. The report further details the data and the methods used for the construction of social accounting, bilateral trade, consumption and investment matrices for each of the SEMCs.

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MEDPRO Rep No 5 WP8 Paroussos.pdf2.01 MB22733 hours 51 min ago
MEDPRO Rep No 5 WP8 Macro economic and structural database.xlsx562.07 KB9731 week 6 hours ago
Date of publication: 
Wed, 29/05/2013
Author(s): 
Leonidas Paroussos, Stella Tsani and Zoi Vrontisi
Institutions: E3M Lab at ICCS/NTUA

MEDPRO Athens Meeting

31/05/2012 09:30
01/06/2012 17:00
Location: 
Athens
Contact person: 
MEDPRO Team members
Speakers : 
Saint George Lycabettus Hotel, Athens, Greece
Agenda
Report
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Stakeholder Engagement Group Workshop Barcelona

30/11/2011 09:00
30/11/2011 18:45
Location: 
Barcelona
Speakers : 
MEDPRO Work Package leaders, external experts
Agenda
Description of event: 

The Stakeholder Engagement Group will include external experts on each of the MEDPRO  Research Fields themes that will interact with the Work Package-leaders (and the Scenario Building Committee members) on the reference and alternative scenarios.

Attachment: 
Report
Attachment: 
Image: 

MEDPRO Brussels Meeting

22/09/2011 09:30
23/09/2011 17:00
Location: 
CEPS
Speakers : 
MEDPRO Team members
Agenda
Description of event: 

During the next MEDPRO Scientific Workshop in Brussels the researchers will discuss their work progress in particular the reference and alternative scenarios in view of the recent upheavals in the south Mediterranean region.

Report

MEDPRO Rome meeting

10/02/2011 14:00
11/02/2011 16:00
Location: 
Istituto di Studi per l'Integrazione dei Sistemi, via Flaminia 21, 00196, Rome
Speakers : 
Members of the Scenario Building Committee and MEDPRO Researchers
Agenda
Description of event: 

On February 10th and 11th 2011, Istituto di Studi per l'Integrazione dei Sistemi (ISIS) hosted the MEDPRO Scenario Building Committee (SBC) meeting. Researchers presented the reference scenarios and discussed the impacts of the events in Tunisia and Egypt .

Report

Scenario building and impact assessment (Work Package 8)

The partial foresight analysis undertaken in the previous work packages will be brought together under a common “roof” of analysis of different scenarios within an internationally consistent framework.

Prof. Pantelis Capros

team_index: 
9
team_pic: 
person_data
Title: 
Prof.
First name: 
Pantelis
Last name: 
Capros
Position: 
Scientific Bureau, Chair of Scenario Building Committee, WP8 leader, ICCS/NTUA team leader
Phone: 
+30 210 772 36 29 / 41
Biography: 

Prof. Pantelis Capros heads the E3MLab of ICCS. He is a Professor of Energy Economics and Operation Research at the Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering of National Technical University of Athens. He has built and used a variety of large-scale mathematical models and has more than 20 years professional experience of consultancy in the domain of energy and economic policy. For the MEDPRO project, E3MLAB will use and apply the GEM-E3 general equilibrium model. In particular, the model version developed already for the integrated FP6 research project CIRCE studying impacts of climate change on the Mediterranean economic and ecological system.