- Scientific coordination
- Geopolitics and governance
- Demography, health and ageing
- Management of environment and natural resources
- Energy and climate change mitigation
- Economic integration, trade, investment and sectoral analyses
- Financial services and capital markets
- Human capital, social protection, inequality and migration
- Scenario building and impact assessment
- Scenarios for regional integration and cooperation with the EU
Macroeconomic Scenarios for the Euro-Mediterranean Area: Quantification based on the GEM-E3 model
Thu, 25/07/2013 - 14:12 | by admin
This study quantifies four alternative macroeconomic scenarios for the southern and eastern Mediterranean countries (SEMCs), with the use of GEM-E3, a general equilibrium model. The four scenarios are: i) the continuation of current policies, ii) southern Mediterranean–EU cooperation, iii) a global opening of the southern Mediterranean countries and cooperation with the rest of the Middle East and other developing countries like China, and iv) a deterioration in the regional political climate and a failure of cooperation. Explicit assumptions on trade integration, infrastructure upgrade, population growth and governance developments are adopted in each scenario. The simulation results indicate that an infrastructure upgrade and governance improvements in the context of SEMC–EU cooperation could benefit most of the countries under consideration. The analysis remains important in light of ongoing regional developments and the need to design the best policies to pursue in the aftermath of the Arab spring.
Leonidas Paroussos, Kostas Fragkiadakis, Ioannis Charalampidis and Stella Tsani are Fellows at ICCS/NTUA – E3M Lab, Athens. Pantelis Capros is the Director of E3M Lab.
Attachment | Size | Hits | Last download |
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MEDPRO Rep No 7 WP8 Paroussos.pdf | 1.75 MB | 4516 | 6 days 17 hours ago |
Date of publication:
Tue, 23/07/2013
Institutions: E3M Lab at ICCS/NTUA