Geopolitics and governance

Algeria’s Failed Transitions to a Sustainable Polity: Coming to yet another Crossroads

Algeria is so far the only country in North Africa not to have experienced sustained mass protests calling for political change. The government in Algiers has by no means remained indifferent to the groundbreaking events in neighbouring countries, but it is responding to this sweeping wave of change at its own pace. This paper argues that, despite its apparent stability, the Algerian polity suffers from underlying currents of instability that risk undermining the long-term sustainability of the state.

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MEDPRO TR No 7 WP2 Darbouche.pdf457.53 KB13855 days 16 hours ago
Date of publication: 
Fri, 28/10/2011
Author(s): 
Hakim Darbouche
Institutions:

State (un)Sustainability in the Southern Mediterranean and Scenarios to 2030: The EU’s Response

In this first MEDPRO project Policy Paper, author Nathalie Tocci considers the concept of sustainability and how it is central to any understanding of Mediterranean politics. Too often confused with stability in policy debates in the Mediterranean region and the West, Tocci argues that not only are these two concepts distinct, with sustainability being broader and deeper than stability, but stability, as interpreted with regard to the regimes in the region, has often run counter to the very conditions that underpin state sustainability.

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MEDPRO PP No 1 WP2 Tocci_updated.pdf279.44 KB187112 hours 41 min ago
Date of publication: 
Mon, 08/08/2011
Author(s): 
Nathalie Tocci
Institutions: IAI

Syria and Lebanon: Diverging Paths of State Unsustainability

Any analysis of the prospects for stability and sustainability in the states of Syria and Lebanon reveals the strong ties that exist between these two countries and the impact of external influences on their overall development. Their trajectories, while starkly divergent in terms of the challenges confronting them at present, converge on a path of long-term unsustainability.

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MEDPRO TR No 6 WP2 Colombo.pdf249 KB21082 days 17 hours ago
Date of publication: 
Thu, 23/06/2011
Author(s): 
Silvia Colombo
Institutions: IAI

Israel and Palestine and State (Un)Sustainability

This report explores the concept of state (un)sustainability in Israel and Palestine. The starting point sees conflict resolution as an independent variable for any change and progress in the area, in terms of a political, just and credible agreement between the two parties, which will then play a decisive role in the development of the Mediterranean region. These developments and prospects for a solution are then evaluated on the basis of state (un)sustainability, a broad notion that refers to the possibilities for long-term development at the political, social and economic levels.

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MEDPRO TR No 5 WP2 Napolitano.pdf373.32 KB369617 hours 18 min ago
Date of publication: 
Mon, 06/06/2011
Author(s): 
Paolo Napolitano
Institutions: IAI

Egypt: Changes and Challenges of Political Transition

Hosni Mubarak’s regime and its power system enjoyed remarkable stability for over 30 years. On 11 February 2011, however, after 18 days of mass protests, the Egyptian president was forced to step down, revealing the unsustainability of the political and economic system that had ensured his continuity for so long. While the revolution of January 25th led to a major success – the fall of Mubarak – Egypt’s political future is still opaque and exposed to a number of risks.

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MEDPRO TR No 4 WP2 Paciello on Egypt.pdf481.2 KB20082 days 2 hours ago
Date of publication: 
Mon, 23/05/2011
Author(s): 
Maria Cristina Paciello
Institutions: IAI

Tunisia: Changes and Challenges of Political Transition

For 23 years, a combination of harsh repression and impressive socio-economic development in Tunisia ensured a certain level of stability of Ben Ali’s regime. However, on 14 January 2011, after several weeks of anti-government protests, the President fled the country, revealing the fallacy of the ‘Tunisian model’. While the departure of Ben Ali is an important step towards Tunisia’s political change, the fate of its democratic transition remains uncertain.

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MEDPRO TR No 3 WP2 Paciello on Tunisia.pdf399.57 KB73902 days 2 hours ago
Date of publication: 
Mon, 23/05/2011
Author(s): 
Maria Cristina Paciello
Institutions: IAI

Morocco at the Crossroads: Seizing the Window of Opportunity for Sustainable Development

The question of state sustainability is highly relevant in the case of Morocco.

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MEDPRO TP No 2 WP2 Colombo.pdf274.48 KB33081 day 16 hours ago
Date of publication: 
Thu, 14/04/2011
Author(s): 
Silvia Colombo
Institutions: IAI

The Southern Mediterranean: Between Changes and Challenges to its Sustainability

In this first Technical Paper, Silvia Colombo,  Istituto Affari Internazionali, IAI draws a critical distinction between short-term stability and long-term sustainability in the Mediterranean.

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MEDPRO TP No 1 WP2 Colombo.pdf362.63 KB40094 hours 21 min ago
Date of publication: 
Wed, 17/11/2010
Author(s): 
Silvia Colombo
Institutions: IAI, CEPS

Geopolitics and governance (Work Package 2)

The violent conflict hubs in the Middle East and Iraq, combined with the neo-authoritarian nature of Arab regimes are likely to create serious political challenges that have been until now rather unexplored in the literature. A trend of state failure in which the state does not fulfill its elementary security and development functions and a growing concentration of political capital among groups opposing incumbent regimes and external actors are two features likely to create unprecedented challenges.