MEDiterranean PROspects

This policy paper focuses on the sustainable management of some key natural resources in southern and eastern Mediterranean countries (SEMCs) under climate change and anthropogenic pressures. In a business-as-usual and even more so in a failed cooperation scenario, water resources, ecosystems and biodiversity in the region are under stress, with negative consequences for agriculture, food security, tourism and development. However, proper adaptation strategies are shown to be effective in reconciling resource conservation with GDP, trade and population growth.

This study aims at assessing the socio-economic and environmental effects of different societal and human development scenarios and climate change in the water-scarce southern and eastern Mediterranean. The study develops a two-stage modelling methodology that includes an econometric analysis for the southern and eastern Mediterranean region as a whole and a detailed, integrated socio-ecological assessment focusing on Jordan, Syria and Morocco. The results show that water resources will be under increasing stress in future years.

This report analyses the potential economic impacts of climate change on 11 southern and eastern Mediterranean countries through the effects of changes on the coastal ecosystem and on agriculture. The impacts are quantified through bottom-up studies assessing the consequences of the deterioration of the coastal ecosystem and protected areas for tourism arrivals, and the effects on yields of major crop families by mid-century. These data are then used as inputs into a world CGE model that quantifies the impact on GDP, sectoral production and prices.

Adaptation to climate change in southern and eastern Mediterranean countries is particularly relevant because of the strong expected effects on the region and the sensitivity of important sectors like agriculture and tourism to climate change. This work analyses qualitative scenarios with the support of insights from the theoretical literature and information collected from case studies about Tunisia, Egypt and Turkey. We deal with several dimensions of adaptation, including the role of the government, equity, uncertainty and linkages with mitigation.

This paper establishes and measures key biodiversity and ecosystem health indicators and the number of world heritage sites in coastal areas at global level. It then estimates – econometrically – the indicators’ influence on the provision of tourism values through the marine ecosystem function as a harbour of biodiversity, and as a provider of amenity values and marine cultural identity. The report then focuses on the MEDPRO region, providing some estimates of the potential impact of climate change on these services for a given temperature increase scenario.