MEDiterranean PROspects

The paper builds predictive scenarios for the agricultural sector of eleven southern and eastern Mediterranean countries (SEMCs), namely Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Palestine, Syria, Tunisia and Turkey. First, it assesses the performance trends of the SEMCs’ agricultural sector, with a focus on production, consumption and trade patterns, incentives, trade protection policies and trade relations with the EU, productivity dynamics and their determinants.

Lack of adequate infrastructure is a significant inhibitor to increased trade of the countries of the Mediterranean region. Bringing their transport infrastructure to standards comparable with countries of a similar per capita GDP will be costly but worthwhile.

This MEDPRO project report describes four population growth scenarios for 11 countries in the Mediterranean region, using the MEDPRO economic-political development framework to consider how indicators of fertility, mortality, and international migration might change if people in these countries were to live in different macro-economic and political contexts. The paper also reflects on the results obtained in light of recent political developments in the region.

Over the last two decades Morocco, Occupied Palestinian Territory, Syria, Tunisia and Turkey have recorded the highest growth rates in inbound world tourism. In the same period, domestic tourism in these countries also increased rapidly. MED 11 tourism performances have been astonishing, given the security risks, natural disasters, oil prices rises and economic uncertainties in the region. Even the last financial crisis had no severe impact on this growth, which confirmed the resilience of tourism and the huge potential of MED 11 countries in this sector.