Geopolitics and governance
Algeria is so far the only country in North Africa not to have experienced sustained mass protests calling for political change. The government in Algiers has by no means remained indifferent to the groundbreaking events in neighbouring countries, but it is responding to this sweeping wave of change at its own pace. This paper argues that, despite its apparent stability, the Algerian polity suffers from underlying currents of instability that risk undermining the long-term sustainability of the state.
|MEDPRO TR No 7 WP2 Darbouche.pdf||457.53 KB||254||2 days 16 hours ago|
In this first MEDPRO project Policy Paper, author Nathalie Tocci considers the concept of sustainability and how it is central to any understanding of Mediterranean politics. Too often confused with stability in policy debates in the Mediterranean region and the West, Tocci argues that not only are these two concepts distinct, with sustainability being broader and deeper than stability, but stability, as interpreted with regard to the regimes in the region, has often run counter to the very conditions that underpin state sustainability.
|MEDPRO PP No 1 WP2 Tocci_updated.pdf||279.44 KB||72||23 hours 9 min ago|
Any analysis of the prospects for stability and sustainability in the states of Syria and Lebanon reveals the strong ties that exist between these two countries and the impact of external influences on their overall development. Their trajectories, while starkly divergent in terms of the challenges confronting them at present, converge on a path of long-term unsustainability.
|MEDPRO TR No 6 WP2 Colombo.pdf||249 KB||537||1 day 8 hours ago|
This report explores the concept of state (un)sustainability in Israel and Palestine. The starting point sees conflict resolution as an independent variable for any change and progress in the area, in terms of a political, just and credible agreement between the two parties, which will then play a decisive role in the development of the Mediterranean region. These developments and prospects for a solution are then evaluated on the basis of state (un)sustainability, a broad notion that refers to the possibilities for long-term development at the political, social and economic levels.
|MEDPRO TR No 5 WP2 Napolitano.pdf||373.32 KB||717||3 hours 29 min ago|
Hosni Mubarak’s regime and its power system enjoyed remarkable stability for over 30 years. On 11 February 2011, however, after 18 days of mass protests, the Egyptian president was forced to step down, revealing the unsustainability of the political and economic system that had ensured his continuity for so long. While the revolution of January 25th led to a major success – the fall of Mubarak – Egypt’s political future is still opaque and exposed to a number of risks.
|MEDPRO TR No 4 WP2 Paciello on Egypt.pdf||481.2 KB||671||1 day 17 hours ago|
For 23 years, a combination of harsh repression and impressive socio-economic development in Tunisia ensured a certain level of stability of Ben Ali’s regime. However, on 14 January 2011, after several weeks of anti-government protests, the President fled the country, revealing the fallacy of the ‘Tunisian model’. While the departure of Ben Ali is an important step towards Tunisia’s political change, the fate of its democratic transition remains uncertain.
|MEDPRO TR No 3 WP2 Paciello on Tunisia.pdf||399.57 KB||3154||18 hours 24 min ago|
In this first Technical Paper, Silvia Colombo, Istituto Affari Internazionali, IAI draws a critical distinction between short-term stability and long-term sustainability in the Mediterranean.
|MEDPRO TP No 1 WP2 Colombo.pdf||362.63 KB||1999||14 hours 29 min ago|
The violent conflict hubs in the Middle East and Iraq, combined with the neo-authoritarian nature of Arab regimes are likely to create serious political challenges that have been until now rather unexplored in the literature. A trend of state failure in which the state does not fulfill its elementary security and development functions and a growing concentration of political capital among groups opposing incumbent regimes and external actors are two features likely to create unprecedented challenges.